Kareem Hunt essentially won me my fantasy league last year. Both he and Ingram were unstoppable. So, why would I be writing about him being a bust? Truthfully, of everyone I have written about, this is the one I feel the least confident about. However, I do want to point out a few issues with Hunt, that are alarming a little troublesome, to say the least.
First, let's start with longevity. As the season progressed, we saw production dwindle for Hunt. In week twelve he averaged 1.5 yards per carry. Now, this is counteracted by his 10.1 yards per carry in week three, and some other great performances, but that decline is a little worrisome. He is 5 foot 11, 201 pounds, so the guy really cannot take the amount of abuse a player like Fournette or Elliot can. He's still young, but one wrong tackle and things can go south fast without the bulk to help absorb it.
Let's also talk about the fact that Hunt did struggle when his team lost, and I do expect the Chiefs to take a few steps back this year with Mahones throwing the ball, and Sammy Watkins is their number one receiver (with Tyreek Hill or something). Take a look at his game to game stats at NFL.com. It is alarming to see because now there are significant changes to the offense without Alex Smith having a career year under center.
All of this is my way of saying 8th overall seems steep for Hunt. Beckham is going 14th, and that is complete insanity. I'm sure Hunt will have another solid year barring injury, but better than Gordon? Fournette? Beckham? Michael Thomas? I just can't buy that.
Owning Hunt at the start of the year last year was magical. He was putting up about 30 points a game. People want to ride that lightning, but don't fall for it. Second round I can see the argument, but before these other guys, I just cannot justify it.
What Should I do Instead?
The next six guys after him are the following: Fournette, Gordon, Hopkins, Jones, Cook, Beckham. I would take ANY of these players over Hunt.
Fantasy Bust: LeSean McCoy
At some point, it has to end. Generally, when it does, it isn't pretty. I think we will see LeSean McCoy struggle this year, and here's why. Let's start out with a fundamental question. I ask myself this every year for every team to help consider if a player will be this fantasy relevant. The question is always slightly altered, but you will get what I am driving at in a second. Can you name three players on the Bills right now? Sammie Watkins...oh wait. There's Richie Incognito....nevermind...Tyrod Taylor...oh, yeah he is with the Browns now.
To be fair, they do have Charles Clay, the Tight End whos career year was in 2013 with the Dolphins and has never caught more than 6 touchdowns in a season. Actually, for the last 3 years with the Bills, he has never had over 560 total yards. Also, who could forget Kelvin Benjamin, the Wide Receiver who hasn't been fantasy relevant since his rookie year with the Panthers in 2014. Or, Corey Coleman! We can't forget him. The Browns gave him away to the Bills for a seventh-round pick, all while they are having severe Wide Receiver issues of their own.
Who is their quarterback? AJ McCarron or whatever. I don't care enough to look up his name, but I am pretty sure his collarbone got decimated in a preseason game. Or is it Nathan Peterman, the player who's QB rating was 38.4 for the ENTIRE YEAR of 2017 (he threw five interceptions and two touchdowns and 253 yards).
Now that I have explained why the Bills will undoubtedly lose the AFC East, do I need to tell you why the Bills won't be running the ball effectively? Do I really need to point out that he is 30 years old? Isn't it clear they will stack the box against this poor, poor man? I can't wait to see Nathan Peterman run a bootleg and throw an interception in the first half of the first game. It's inevitable. When you can't throw the ball and make the defense respect the passing game, even if it is short passes, they will bottle you up. They won't let you run the ball.
Nobody fears the Bills, and we really shouldn't fear their run game.
I'm sorry LeSean McCoy! It was good while it lasted.
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Fantasy Bust: Aaron Rodgers
I feel like I am repeating myself over and over again, but I need to put this disclaimer in here. I don't think Aaron Rodgers is a bad player. I think he is the best QB in the game right now. But why, why, why, why would anyone take him with a second round pick? In a time where age apparently means nothing to quarterbacks, for what it's worth, he will be turning 35 this year. My issue isn't age though, my concern is longevity. Yes, Manning played until he was 40, and yes, Tom Brady is also playing, "old," at 41, but you know what those two players didn't do? Constantly running for their lives all over the field, and then throw the ball as hard as they could for 45 yards on a regular basis. That wear and tear is going to have significant repercussions, and I think we are going to see it sooner rather than later. Take a look at the broken collarbone last year against the Vikings. Also, who are their wide receivers? Randall Cobb? Devante Adams? Jimmy Graham (that would have been awesome 5 years ago)?
The Packers heyday is done because Rodgers is past his prime. This is the secret absolutely nobody is talking about, and it's a reality that Wisconsin won't be able to deal with. I've been through Wisconsin, and all they have is cheese and the Packers and once this team has a mediocre QB at the helm in about 3 years (yes, it will be that soon) it's over. Welcome to the rest of everyone's struggles in this league.
What Should I Do?: You know who you could have instead of Aaron Rodgers? Essentially anyone past pick 17. Michael Thomas, AJ Green, Keenan Allen, Gronk. If you own Rodgers in Dynasty, unload him ASAP. Get a late first or a few second rounders for him. Move on.
Fun Statistic: The last three years (since he has been starting), Kirk Cousins has thrown for 13,176 yards and 81 TDs. Cousins is going to be in the best offense of his career in Minnesota. In that time, (yes, I know there was a hurt season with Rodgers, but bear with me) 9,924 yards and 87 TDs. Yes, he throws a lot of touchdowns(one season he threw for 40 TDs), but who would you rather have? Kirk at 68? Or Rodgers at 17?
Bust Alert: Alvin Kamara
Before I get angry emails and tweets, let me start out by saying that I like Kamara. I really do. He is a fun and explosive player with tremendous upside and had a monster rookie year. My problems with Kamara aren't that he is a bad player, my issues with Kamara stem from the fact that he is being taken 5th overall. He's going before Antonio Brown in most draft.
Let's start with the fact that Kamara is in his second year, and is still (at least to me) a little unproven. Yes, he had a fantastic first year (1,500 total yards and 12 TDs), but can that be maintained without Mark Ingram around to carry some of the load? Kamara is, after all, going to be the only running back on this team for four games. Will he be able to do it? Will this affect his longterm abilities for the season? In my opinion, you can't expect this because nobody knows if he can handle it.
I think what made him so good last year was this thunder, lightning approach to running the ball with Ingram, and I find it realistic to believe that without the other half being there he will suffer tremendously.
What Should I Do Instead?: Take Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown is Alvin Kamara's ceiling, and he is going after Brown. Regarding the New Orleans backfield (and if you want to make a better fantasy move) take Ingram at 55. He almost always finishes in the top 15 for RBs, even if he is out for a few games with an injury. I know you'll have to patch it together for the first four weeks, but having Ingram, a solid low-end RB1, you can get in round 5 is a steal. You will have this guy for the fantasy playoffs, and he would be your flex or fill in for bye weeks.
Bust Alert: Player Profile Christian McCaffrey
I am moving from deep sleeper profile to bust alerts for the coming year. Let me start out by saying I do not think McCaffrey is a bad player, nor do I think he is unproductive in general. What I am saying is he is being drafted at 17th overall (RB12), which is completely insane. Michael Thomas is going after him. AJ Green is going after him. Mike Evans is going after him (almost a whole round actually).
Why? In PPR, I kind of get it. He had 80 receptions for 651 yards in addition to his 435 rushing yards. However, now with CJ Anderson in the mix, I think that was his ceiling. Most importantly, I think to take him early (like, second round early) is a significant mistake.
Let me put it like this. Let's say, hypothetically, there is no change in production at all. In theory, Cam doesn't run the ball more, McCaffrey doesn't have a sophomore slump, Anderson doesn't put a dent in the production, etc. In both seasons Thomas has been in the league, he has over 1,100 yards, already more than McCaffrey. Evans has over 1,000 receiving yards since he entered the league 4 years ago.
What do you think is going to happen? I don't think McCaffrey is going to have over 800 TOTAL yards this season. I think we are going to see Anderson get the rock a lot more on the run plays, and McCaffrey will be the Giovani Bernard of this duo (who isn't bad if you get him in PPR, 122 overall). Don't fall for him. It is, indeed, a trap.
My bet: 800 total yards, 6 TDs.
Note: This is about as well as Giovani Bernard did last season.
Deep Sleeper: Player Profile Nick Chubb
I usually try and steer clear of putting any lousy team's running back on any fantasy recommendation. When you have a bad defense, it is hard to run the ball. When you had a bad quarterback (whichever mediocre one they go with), it is also difficult to run the ball. When your team is getting blown out, you stop running the ball. I expect the Browns to do a lot of throwing this year. All of this compounded with the fact that this guy has already had a significant, very hard to watch, knee injury. Don't believe me? Here, watch for yourself.
His measurables are pretty good. He ran a 4.52 40, but I have to keep going back to the fact that this guy hasn't been the same since his leg injury in 2015 (three years ago). This guy was supposed to be a legitimate first-round talent. The reason he went late in the second are the significant health concerns. Let's also not ignore the fact that he is currently listed as third on the depth chart.
Ok, so why am I talking about this guy if there are this many issues? Well, because currently, Chubb is the 100th player off the board. The end of the 10th round. Do you know who the two guys are ahead of him? Duke Johnson, the pass-catching back, and Carlos Hyde. That's right. THE Carlos Hyde. The same man who played his first full season in four years last year. The same guy who significantly seems to struggle with a full workload as a running back. Chubb is backing that Carlos Hyde up. Oh, did I mention Hyde is about to turn 28 at the start of the season? The year every running back starts to struggle?
This is all potential opportunity. Carlos is old for an NFL RB, and his body has already taken a beating. This article has more to do with my lack of belief in Hyde more than it does Chubb. The Browns are going to kick the tires on this guy at some point this season. They want to see if he has it. They want to know if he is the second round talent that they drafted. Whether that is because they are getting blown out, or if it is because Hyde is hurt, expect them to put him on the field, and when they do, this guy knows he needs to perform if he wants to remain on any roster. Cleveland is the Last Chance U version of the NFL. If he can't showcase with the Browns, RIP Chubb's career.
I never, ever thought I would write any sentence that even resembled this. Draft the third-string running back for the Cleveland Browns.
I just threw up.
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Deep Sleeper: Player Profile DJ Chark
I had to throw at least one Jaguar I feel is being slept on, and that player is going to be DJ Chark. I know a lot of people are talking about Dede Westbrook for the Jags, and I don't really know why. Yes, he flashed a bit last year, and he could step up, but to what? What is Westbrook's ceiling? I think DJ has a legitimate shot at making a real impact this year for the Jags, and nobody is talking about him. His ADP is currently at 280, and his WR ranking is at 95. I think especially in PPR, you cannot afford to let this guy slip. Take him in the last round if you have to, but get him on your roster.
Let's talk about why the Jags took him in the second round. He ran a 4.34 40, a vertical jump at 40 inches, and a broad jump of 129. Great measurables, good speed, and he is putting it together on the practice field. There are reports from beat writers saying he is beating out Ramsey and Bouye on some passes, which is almost unbelievable. Bouye is talking him up, and apparently, he beat Ramsey on a long touchdown just this week.
Most importantly, who the hell is going to beat him out for a WR1 spot? Moncrief? He was only ok because Andrew Luck was throwing him the ball. Lee? He will pull his hamstring or sprain an ankle by week 2. Westbrook might be the only player who is going to push him.
Think of the potential of just volume for DJ. Currently, on fftoday.com's rankings, Martavis Bryant is listed as their 61st best wide receiver. Darrius Heyward-Bey is at 136. DJ Chark isn't even listed. Barring injury, DJ should have more of an opportunity and has a better skill set than DHB. Last year, DHB had 2 receptions for 47 yards. The year before, 6 for 114 yards. The past 2 seasons Martavis Bryant has played (2015 and 2017) he had 50 receptions for 765 and 603 yards. Last year, Allen Hurns, the defacto number one wide receiver for the Jags, only played in 10 games and managed to amass almost 500 yards. I think Chark will top that this year. Take him. Just like all the players I have written about this week, he is FREE!
Deep Sleeper: Player Profile Auden Tate
I know yesterday I wrote about the Bengals, but let's stick with another Bengals wide receiver, Auden Tate. What I always heard about Tate was that he was slow, and his transition into the NFL wouldn't be a good one from FSU because of his mediocre speed. The guy ran a 4.68 40 at the combine. This was exactly Gronkowski's speed when he did the combine, and if you watch Gronk, he isn't good because he's fast, he's good because he is a monster of a human being. Ben Roethlisberger ran a 4.75 40. What I am getting at, is these times are gross. I should also mention that his high jump was 31 inches (average is 35 inches for the position) and his broad jump was 112 inches (par for the position is about 120). In regards to his measurable athletic ability, this guy isn't there.
Something very few people are talking about is the size of this guy. He is beating cornerbacks because he is 6 foot 5, 227 pounds. These measurables are close to Calvin Johnson, who was 6 foot 5, 239 pounds (Megatron ran a 4.35 40). I am NOT saying he is going to be Calvin Johnson who was easily a generational talent. I am saying with his size, and the average corner being 6 foot, (and with 6 foot 3 being a HUGE cornerback that was drafted this year), and with an offense that seems to love big receivers (see AJ Green), and a pretty good team around him, he could be successful.
Also, as with everyone else I have written about this week, he is free. Not even being drafted. I picked him up on waivers in my dynasty league a few weeks ago. Put the guy on your watch list.
Check out this game-winning touchdown (it's preseason, but whatever).
Out of the two Bengals WRs I would still take Boyd, just because he has been in the NFL for 2 full years. But, don't sleep on this guy.
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Deep Sleeper: Player Profile Tyler Boyd
Tyler Boyd....The man I took in the first round in my dynasty drafts several years ago, and in his third NFL season. I am expecting a big leap from Boyd and the Bengals this year. Why? Because there really aren't excuses anymore. This is a put up or shut-up year for Boyd, and he has to know that. Let's start with what we know as fantasy football owners.
In the 2016 NFL draft, Boyd went 55th overall in the second round, and people expected big things from this player. After a solid rookie performance, he fell off the face of the earth because of the Bengals signing LaFell, and with various legal issues surrounding him and distracting him from on-field play. With LaFell gone his only real competition for second WR duties is John Ross, a speedster who also had issues performing last year, and a player who I foresee being like a Mike Wallace. Sure, every 6 weeks he'll put up 14-20 points, but the other 5 weeks in between will be frustrating 0-5 point no man's land.
Boyd has impressive hands, and I think he could be a factor this year with nobody ahead of him on the depth chart. With attention from the defense going to AJ Green (never forget the fight with Ramsey last year) this leaves the door open for Boyd. Before LaFell showed up his stat line his rookie year was 603 yards with 1 TD. Not beautiful, but you can see the skill set being there. Realistically, in PPR, Boyd could be a factor with not pretty stat lines, but pretty enough to be a reliable WR 3 or Flex option. His ADP is 357 so round 35? Give or take? What do you have to lose? I also consider him a great buy low candidate. Give up a 2nd or two 3rd rounders in a dynasty rookie draft, and people will part with Boyd.
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Deep Sleeper: Player Profile Phillip Lindsay
I am continuing my week on deep sleeper profiles with a guy who has been getting some buzz, Phillip Lindsay. Who is Phillip Lindsay? Well, let's take a look!
Let's start out with the negatives. This guy is small for an NFL running back. At 5 foot 8 inches and 190 pounds, I'm not sure the guy can make it a whole season. But, that won't stop coaches from trying!
This man is FAST. He ran a 4.39 40 at his pro day, had a 35.5-inch vertical jump, and nearly a 10.5-foot broad jump. To put that into perspective, that would have made him the second fastest running back in the draft. If you want to see some videos here is the link.
It's not just the speed and ability I like, it is the fact that he is getting opportunities in the pre-season and capitalizing. Here's a video of a 19 yard TD from week one.
Lindsay needs to continue making plays like this to stay on the roster, but I think he can! I don't know why. Maybe it's his speed? Maybe it's because he went to school in Colorado and is becoming a local hero? Maybe I am just rooting for the underdog? Maybe the fact that he can catch the ball will make him a Darren Sproles like player in the future (he is a few inches taller than Sproles). Still, he is behind Devantae Booker, Royce Freeman, Deangelo Henderson, David Williams, and then my man, Lindsay according to ourlads.com.
Let me leave you with this. Lindsay LED the team in receiving. Three receptions for 40 yards and he averaged 3.5 yards per carry when it came to rushing. Currently, the guy is going undrafted. I recommend him as a stash in keeper, and dynasty formats an especially PPR.
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Deep Sleeper: Player Profile Daurice Fountain
If you look over my last few days of work, you'll see some sleepers and overrated players that I have written about. Today, I want to look at someone not a lot of people are talking about, Daurice Fountain.
I want to add a disclaimer here. I have no idea how this pick will pan out. I don't know how much of an impact he will have right now, but I am a long-term believer in Fountain. Let's start out with why I think that.
Fountain is in an extraordinary situation. With Luck back, he has a generational QB talent throwing the ball, and with Deon Cain tearing his ACL there isn't a lot in front of him. Ryan Grant is apparently good at route running but not a standout athlete. There are other guys ahead of him on the unofficial depth charts, but I have never heard of most of these guys other than TY Hilton, who went to the same college as me!
Fountain had good speed with a 4.51 at his pro day, a 42.5 vertical jump, and a broad jump of over 11 feet. With most coverage focus conceivably going to TY, who else is there on this team to catch balls? The Colts have almost no O-line, and in a division that prides itself on insanely good Defenses and D-lines, Fountain won't need to run down the field to catch anything from Luck.
If TY gets hurt, or they Colts go into garbage time (which I think they often will this season, with no defense, no o-line, no running game, one WR, and a QB who hasn't seen action in over a year and a half), what do you think will happen? In keeper, dynasty, and most of all, PPR leagues, this guy might be worth a stash.
His price is FREE! He has no ADP, and you could probably get him off the waiver wire week 1-3, but if you have a big league with a deep bench take this guy.
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Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers 8/12/2018
Yesterday, I wrote about the players I saw as overrated, and today, I am going to do the top underrated players for the 2018 year.
Derrick Henry - ADP 34
Can I call a player going in the third round underrated? Yes. Yes, I can. Henry is a steal mid third round and could make or break your team. Let's be honest, Mariota is an okay QB, and he's on a team that loves to run the ball. Henry is a 6 foot 3 inch, 240-pound monster and with Demarco Murray retired, there is nobody in his way. Rodgers is going 10 spots before him. Joe Mixon is going more than 10 spots before him. Take Henry in the second if you have to. He's a talented, feature back on a team with a solid defense.
My Bet: 1,200 yards, 8 TDs
Corey Davis - ADP 67
Let's stay on the Titans. Can you name one Wide Receiver other than Corey Davis for this team? Do you remember the hype train around this guy last year? He was going 1st overall in Dynasty formats. The guy is talented and without him and Delanie Walker, it is going the be Rishard Mathews (gross) Taje, I probably didn't spell his name right, Sharpe (gross). Late 6th round this guy is a steal, but you will need to be patient with him. I suspect a slower start and then an explosion around game 3 or 4.
My Bet - 1000 yards 6 TDs.
Doug Martin - ADP 145
This isn't a testament to Doug Martin. I hate the guy as a player. He is insanely frustrating to own. This has to do with ADP and the 32-year-old guy in front of him with a degenerative back issue. Nearing round 15 you could have guys like Giovani Bernard (this is standard ADP, not PPR), Theo Riddick, Matt Breda, or Nyheim Hines is going ahead of him (no idea who that is) or The Muscle Hamster. Is Doug Martin going to piss you off? Of course. Is he going to run for 1,000 yards? Probably not. But eventually, the Marshawn Lynch we know will end. Last year, Beast Mode ran for almost 800 yards, but this year, I doubt he'll top 500. On a competitive team with pieces all around, the Raiders won't keep in Lynch just because they like him. Also, don't be fooled by that 60 yard TD or whatever in the preseason by Lynch. It got called back for holding.
My Bet: Doug Martin tops 500 yards and 5 TDs for the first time since 2015.
Leonard Fournette - ADP 10
Ok, this is more of a frustration as a Jags fan, so I am saying this through Teal Tinted glasses. How much more does the guy have to do? Bortles has been improving and with a defense that has hardly changed, what more do you want for a team to be set up to run the ball? He ran for over 1,000 yards this year, and I think he will do even better this year. Ezekiel Elliot is going 3rd overall and rushed for fewer yards (yes, I know he was suspended). Alvin Kamara, who I like, but I don't think can handle a full workload is going before him. Barkley, a guy who has never played in the NFL, is going before him, Kareem Hunt, who flashed last year, but couldn't sustain it is going before him. Take the solid pick here. Go with Fournette.
My Bet: 1,300 yards 10 TDs
That's it. I can't wait until the season is over and I can show everyone who right I am.
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Fantasy Football Thoughts - DO NOT TAKE THESE PLAYERS 8/12/2018
With fantasy football season approaching, I feel like every year I have alternative takes on the players, but I always relied on the professionals to publish what they thought. This year, I am taking a slightly different approach. I am way low on some players and have some sleepers I am targeting later in the draft. So here is my list of guys to take before and after the 7th round. Why the 7th? Because those are the guys that can make or break your team. Late round fliers are important! So, get an edge and consider the following:
DO NOT TAKE BEFORE THE SEVENTH ROUND
Allen Robinson - ADP 47
As a Jaguars fan, this is rough to put here. I have a soft spot in my heart for this guy. But when the Jags got competitive, he dropped off and eventually, he tore his ACL. What is even more confusing to me was that he left Jacksonville to go to the Bears. Was it to make money? He didn't cash in (I feel like the Jags would have met the contract) and he is playing with a worse quarterback with Mitch Truvbitzkieystymc or whatever, who cares. He's currently the 19th wide receiver off the board, a year after an ACL tear, and a few years removed from real fantasy value, and with a worse QB than Bortles. I don't buy it.
My bet: Less than 800 yards and less than 6 TDs.
Jerick Mckinnon - ADP 22
This guy is going 22nd overall. Never had a full workload. Never been proven to be a bell cow. This has Lamar Miller leaving the Dolphins written all over it. He might have a good year with the 49ers. He might even have a career year! Do you know what a career year would entail for Jerick Mckinnon? 160 attempts for 560 yards. For him to set a real, career record, he needs 10 touches a game, and he needs to average approximately 3.4 yards per carry. I think this guy is a real talent, but I don't think he can survive as a feature back. Lesean Mccoy is going after him. Take Mccoy. It's all the Bills have.
My bet: Less than 700 yards and less than 7 TDs.
Dalvin Cook - ADP 13
This guy looked like the real deal. In my Dynasty draft, I almost took him second overall, but Fournette was there, so I took him instead. The guy had an outstanding start to the year, and I thought he was going to be unstoppable. But a torn ACL first way through your first season on a non-contact play is worrisome.
With Latavius Murray being a good option, why stick with the guy who is hurt if he is unable to produce? He is not Adrian Peterson, and he will not come back seamlessly from an ACL tear and almost set an NFL record. I think Cook will have a good year. I really do, but not 13th overall good. Julio Jones is going AFTER him. Odell Beckham is going one spot before him. Micheal Thomas is going TWO after him. Take the Wide receivers and don't buy the hype.
My bet: Less than 750 yards, less than 6 TDs.