Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers 8/12/2018

Yesterday, I wrote about the players I saw as overrated, and today, I am going to do the top underrated players for the 2018 year.

Derrick Henry - ADP 34

Can I call a player going in the third round underrated? Yes. Yes, I can. Henry is a steal mid third round and could make or break your team. Let's be honest, Mariota is an okay QB, and he's on a team that loves to run the ball. Henry is a 6 foot 3 inch, 240-pound monster and with Demarco Murray retired, there is nobody in his way. Rodgers is going 10 spots before him. Joe Mixon is going more than 10 spots before him. Take Henry in the second if you have to. He's a talented, feature back on a team with a solid defense. 

My Bet: 1,200 yards, 8 TDs

Corey Davis - ADP 67

Let's stay on the Titans. Can you name one Wide Receiver other than Corey Davis for this team? Do you remember the hype train around this guy last year? He was going 1st overall in Dynasty formats. The guy is talented and without him and Delanie Walker, it is going the be Rishard Mathews (gross) Taje, I probably didn't spell his name right, Sharpe (gross). Late 6th round this guy is a steal, but you will need to be patient with him. I suspect a slower start and then an explosion around game 3 or 4.

My Bet - 1000 yards 6 TDs. 

Doug Martin - ADP 145

This isn't a testament to Doug Martin. I hate the guy as a player. He is insanely frustrating to own. This has to do with ADP and the 32-year-old guy in front of him with a degenerative back issue. Nearing round 15 you could have guys like Giovani Bernard (this is standard ADP, not PPR), Theo Riddick, Matt Breda, or Nyheim Hines is going ahead of him (no idea who that is) or The Muscle Hamster. Is Doug Martin going to piss you off? Of course. Is he going to run for 1,000 yards? Probably not. But eventually, the Marshawn Lynch we know will end. Last year, Beast Mode ran for almost 800 yards, but this year, I doubt he'll top 500. On a competitive team with pieces all around, the Raiders won't keep in Lynch just because they like him. Also, don't be fooled by that 60 yard TD or whatever in the preseason by Lynch. It got called back for holding. 

My Bet: Doug Martin tops 500 yards and 5 TDs for the first time since 2015.

Leonard Fournette - ADP 10
Ok, this is more of a frustration as a Jags fan, so I am saying this through Teal Tinted glasses. How much more does the guy have to do? Bortles has been improving and with a defense that has hardly changed, what more do you want for a team to be set up to run the ball? He ran for over 1,000 yards this year, and I think he will do even better this year. Ezekiel Elliot is going 3rd overall and rushed for fewer yards (yes, I know he was suspended). Alvin Kamara, who I like, but I don't think can handle a full workload is going before him. Barkley, a guy who has never played in the NFL, is going before him, Kareem Hunt, who flashed last year, but couldn't sustain it is going before him. Take the solid pick here. Go with Fournette.

My Bet: 1,300 yards 10 TDs

That's it. I can't wait until the season is over and I can show everyone who right I am. 

Like this? Check out my book! Available on Amazon 10/7/2018 on Amazon and my website. 

Fantasy Football Thoughts - DO NOT TAKE THESE PLAYERS 8/12/2018

With fantasy football season approaching, I feel like every year I have alternative takes on the players, but I always relied on the professionals to publish what they thought. This year, I am taking a slightly different approach. I am way low on some players and have some sleepers I am targeting later in the draft. So here is my list of guys to take before and after the 7th round. Why the 7th? Because those are the guys that can make or break your team. Late round fliers are important! So, get an edge and consider the following:

DO NOT TAKE BEFORE THE SEVENTH ROUND

Allen Robinson - ADP 47


As a Jaguars fan, this is rough to put here. I have a soft spot in my heart for this guy. But when the Jags got competitive, he dropped off and eventually, he tore his ACL. What is even more confusing to me was that he left Jacksonville to go to the Bears. Was it to make money? He didn't cash in (I feel like the Jags would have met the contract) and he is playing with a worse quarterback with Mitch Truvbitzkieystymc or whatever, who cares. He's currently the 19th wide receiver off the board, a year after an ACL tear, and a few years removed from real fantasy value, and with a worse QB than Bortles. I don't buy it.
My bet:  Less than 800 yards and less than 6 TDs.

 

Jerick Mckinnon - ADP 22  

 

This guy is going 22nd overall. Never had a full workload. Never been proven to be a bell cow. This has Lamar Miller leaving the Dolphins written all over it. He might have a good year with the 49ers. He might even have a career year! Do you know what a career year would entail for Jerick Mckinnon? 160 attempts for 560 yards. For him to set a real, career record, he needs 10 touches a game, and he needs to average approximately 3.4 yards per carry. I think this guy is a real talent, but I don't think he can survive as a feature back. Lesean Mccoy is going after him. Take Mccoy. It's all the Bills have. 
My bet: Less than 700 yards and less than 7 TDs.

 

Dalvin Cook - ADP 13

 

This guy looked like the real deal. In my Dynasty draft, I almost took him second overall, but Fournette was there, so I took him instead. The guy had an outstanding start to the year, and I thought he was going to be unstoppable. But a torn ACL first way through your first season on a non-contact play is worrisome.  

With Latavius Murray being a good option, why stick with the guy who is hurt if he is unable to produce? He is not Adrian Peterson, and he will not come back seamlessly from an ACL tear and almost set an NFL record. I think Cook will have a good year. I really do, but not 13th overall good. Julio Jones is going AFTER him. Odell Beckham is going one spot before him. Micheal Thomas is going TWO after him. Take the Wide receivers and don't buy the hype. 
My bet: Less than 750 yards, less than 6 TDs.

 

Any New England Wide Receiver - ADP post 7th

 

I say this every year, and every year I look like a moron. But I can't stop now. Let me start by saying that I think it's great he is drinking shakes and in the best shape of his life. I think it's great he wants to play. And I love seeing the Dolphins lose. That all being said, we have to see a decline in play. The guy is 41 years old. Remember watching Manning play in his final, miserable season. Manning was amazing, and then it was like watching my Dad play for the Broncos. Same thing. With a weak wide receiving corps, and an old man playing QB, along with no running game (I don't even know who plays for them anymore), how is this going to work?
    

RIP Brady. You should have retired when you beat the Seahawks. 

 

Check back tomorrow for my guys to target early. 
    

Like this? Check out my book! Available on Amazon 10/7/2018 on Amazon and my website.