Fantasy Bust: LeSean McCoy

At some point, it has to end. Generally, when it does, it isn't pretty. I think we will see LeSean McCoy struggle this year, and here's why. Let's start out with a fundamental question. I ask myself this every year for every team to help consider if a player will be this fantasy relevant. The question is always slightly altered, but you will get what I am driving at in a second. Can you name three players on the Bills right now? Sammie Watkins...oh wait. There's Richie Incognito....nevermind...Tyrod Taylor...oh, yeah he is with the Browns now.
To be fair, they do have Charles Clay, the Tight End whos career year was in 2013 with the Dolphins and has never caught more than 6 touchdowns in a season. Actually, for the last 3 years with the Bills, he has never had over 560 total yards. Also, who could forget Kelvin Benjamin, the Wide Receiver who hasn't been fantasy relevant since his rookie year with the Panthers in 2014. Or, Corey Coleman! We can't forget him. The Browns gave him away to the Bills for a seventh-round pick, all while they are having severe Wide Receiver issues of their own. 
Who is their quarterback? AJ McCarron or whatever. I don't care enough to look up his name, but I am pretty sure his collarbone got decimated in a preseason game. Or is it Nathan Peterman, the player who's QB rating was 38.4 for the ENTIRE YEAR of 2017 (he threw five interceptions and two touchdowns and 253 yards).
Now that I have explained why the Bills will undoubtedly lose the AFC East, do I need to tell you why the Bills won't be running the ball effectively? Do I really need to point out that he is 30 years old? Isn't it clear they will stack the box against this poor, poor man? I can't wait to see Nathan Peterman run a bootleg and throw an interception in the first half of the first game. It's inevitable.  When you can't throw the ball and make the defense respect the passing game, even if it is short passes, they will bottle you up. They won't let you run the ball. 
Nobody fears the Bills, and we really shouldn't fear their run game.
I'm sorry LeSean McCoy! It was good while it lasted. 

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Deep Sleeper: Player Profile DJ Chark

I had to throw at least one Jaguar I feel is being slept on, and that player is going to be DJ Chark. I know a lot of people are talking about Dede Westbrook for the Jags, and I don't really know why. Yes, he flashed a bit last year, and he could step up, but to what? What is Westbrook's ceiling? I think DJ has a legitimate shot at making a real impact this year for the Jags, and nobody is talking about him. His ADP is currently at 280, and his WR ranking is at 95. I think especially in PPR, you cannot afford to let this guy slip. Take him in the last round if you have to, but get him on your roster.

Let's talk about why the Jags took him in the second round. He ran a 4.34 40, a vertical jump at 40 inches, and a broad jump of 129. Great measurables, good speed, and he is putting it together on the practice field. There are reports from beat writers saying he is beating out Ramsey and Bouye on some passes, which is almost unbelievable. Bouye is talking him up, and apparently, he beat Ramsey on a long touchdown just this week. 

Most importantly, who the hell is going to beat him out for a WR1 spot? Moncrief? He was only ok because Andrew Luck was throwing him the ball. Lee? He will pull his hamstring or sprain an ankle by week 2. Westbrook might be the only player who is going to push him. 

Think of the potential of just volume for DJ. Currently, on fftoday.com's rankings, Martavis Bryant is listed as their 61st best wide receiver. Darrius Heyward-Bey is at 136. DJ Chark isn't even listed. Barring injury, DJ should have more of an opportunity and has a better skill set than DHB. Last year, DHB had 2 receptions for 47 yards. The year before, 6 for 114 yards. The past 2 seasons Martavis Bryant has played (2015 and 2017) he had 50 receptions for 765 and 603 yards. Last year, Allen Hurns, the defacto number one wide receiver for the Jags, only played in 10 games and managed to amass almost 500 yards. I think Chark will top that this year.  Take him. Just like all the players I have written about this week, he is FREE!

Deep Sleeper: Player Profile Daurice Fountain

If you look over my last few days of work, you'll see some sleepers and overrated players that I have written about. Today, I want to look at someone not a lot of people are talking about, Daurice Fountain. 

I want to add a disclaimer here. I have no idea how this pick will pan out. I don't know how much of an impact he will have right now, but I am a long-term believer in Fountain. Let's start out with why I think that.

Fountain is in an extraordinary situation. With Luck back, he has a generational QB talent throwing the ball, and with Deon Cain tearing his ACL there isn't a lot in front of him. Ryan Grant is apparently good at route running but not a standout athlete. There are other guys ahead of him on the unofficial depth charts, but I have never heard of most of these guys other than TY Hilton, who went to the same college as me!

Fountain had good speed with a 4.51 at his pro day, a 42.5 vertical jump, and a broad jump of over 11 feet. With most coverage focus conceivably going to TY, who else is there on this team to catch balls? The Colts have almost no O-line, and in a division that prides itself on insanely good Defenses and D-lines, Fountain won't need to run down the field to catch anything from Luck.

If TY gets hurt, or they Colts go into garbage time (which I think they often will this season, with no defense, no o-line, no running game, one WR, and a QB who hasn't seen action in over a year and a half), what do you think will happen?  In keeper, dynasty, and most of all, PPR leagues, this guy might be worth a stash.

His price is FREE! He has no ADP, and you could probably get him off the waiver wire week 1-3, but if you have a big league with a deep bench take this guy. 

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Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers 8/12/2018

Yesterday, I wrote about the players I saw as overrated, and today, I am going to do the top underrated players for the 2018 year.

Derrick Henry - ADP 34

Can I call a player going in the third round underrated? Yes. Yes, I can. Henry is a steal mid third round and could make or break your team. Let's be honest, Mariota is an okay QB, and he's on a team that loves to run the ball. Henry is a 6 foot 3 inch, 240-pound monster and with Demarco Murray retired, there is nobody in his way. Rodgers is going 10 spots before him. Joe Mixon is going more than 10 spots before him. Take Henry in the second if you have to. He's a talented, feature back on a team with a solid defense. 

My Bet: 1,200 yards, 8 TDs

Corey Davis - ADP 67

Let's stay on the Titans. Can you name one Wide Receiver other than Corey Davis for this team? Do you remember the hype train around this guy last year? He was going 1st overall in Dynasty formats. The guy is talented and without him and Delanie Walker, it is going the be Rishard Mathews (gross) Taje, I probably didn't spell his name right, Sharpe (gross). Late 6th round this guy is a steal, but you will need to be patient with him. I suspect a slower start and then an explosion around game 3 or 4.

My Bet - 1000 yards 6 TDs. 

Doug Martin - ADP 145

This isn't a testament to Doug Martin. I hate the guy as a player. He is insanely frustrating to own. This has to do with ADP and the 32-year-old guy in front of him with a degenerative back issue. Nearing round 15 you could have guys like Giovani Bernard (this is standard ADP, not PPR), Theo Riddick, Matt Breda, or Nyheim Hines is going ahead of him (no idea who that is) or The Muscle Hamster. Is Doug Martin going to piss you off? Of course. Is he going to run for 1,000 yards? Probably not. But eventually, the Marshawn Lynch we know will end. Last year, Beast Mode ran for almost 800 yards, but this year, I doubt he'll top 500. On a competitive team with pieces all around, the Raiders won't keep in Lynch just because they like him. Also, don't be fooled by that 60 yard TD or whatever in the preseason by Lynch. It got called back for holding. 

My Bet: Doug Martin tops 500 yards and 5 TDs for the first time since 2015.

Leonard Fournette - ADP 10
Ok, this is more of a frustration as a Jags fan, so I am saying this through Teal Tinted glasses. How much more does the guy have to do? Bortles has been improving and with a defense that has hardly changed, what more do you want for a team to be set up to run the ball? He ran for over 1,000 yards this year, and I think he will do even better this year. Ezekiel Elliot is going 3rd overall and rushed for fewer yards (yes, I know he was suspended). Alvin Kamara, who I like, but I don't think can handle a full workload is going before him. Barkley, a guy who has never played in the NFL, is going before him, Kareem Hunt, who flashed last year, but couldn't sustain it is going before him. Take the solid pick here. Go with Fournette.

My Bet: 1,300 yards 10 TDs

That's it. I can't wait until the season is over and I can show everyone who right I am. 

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Fantasy Football Thoughts - DO NOT TAKE THESE PLAYERS 8/12/2018

With fantasy football season approaching, I feel like every year I have alternative takes on the players, but I always relied on the professionals to publish what they thought. This year, I am taking a slightly different approach. I am way low on some players and have some sleepers I am targeting later in the draft. So here is my list of guys to take before and after the 7th round. Why the 7th? Because those are the guys that can make or break your team. Late round fliers are important! So, get an edge and consider the following:

DO NOT TAKE BEFORE THE SEVENTH ROUND

Allen Robinson - ADP 47

As a Jaguars fan, this is rough to put here. I have a soft spot in my heart for this guy. But when the Jags got competitive, he dropped off and eventually, he tore his ACL. What is even more confusing to me was that he left Jacksonville to go to the Bears. Was it to make money? He didn't cash in (I feel like the Jags would have met the contract) and he is playing with a worse quarterback with Mitch Truvbitzkieystymc or whatever, who cares. He's currently the 19th wide receiver off the board, a year after an ACL tear, and a few years removed from real fantasy value, and with a worse QB than Bortles. I don't buy it.
My bet:  Less than 800 yards and less than 6 TDs.

Jerick Mckinnon - ADP 22  

 

This guy is going 22nd overall. Never had a full workload. Never been proven to be a bell cow. This has Lamar Miller leaving the Dolphins written all over it. He might have a good year with the 49ers. He might even have a career year! Do you know what a career year would entail for Jerick Mckinnon? 160 attempts for 560 yards. For him to set a real, career record, he needs 10 touches a game, and he needs to average approximately 3.4 yards per carry. I think this guy is a real talent, but I don't think he can survive as a feature back. Lesean Mccoy is going after him. Take Mccoy. It's all the Bills have. 
My bet: Less than 700 yards and less than 7 TDs.

Dalvin Cook - ADP 13

 

This guy looked like the real deal. In my Dynasty draft, I almost took him second overall, but Fournette was there, so I took him instead. The guy had an outstanding start to the year, and I thought he was going to be unstoppable. But a torn ACL first way through your first season on a non-contact play is worrisome.  

With Latavius Murray being a good option, why stick with the guy who is hurt if he is unable to produce? He is not Adrian Peterson, and he will not come back seamlessly from an ACL tear and almost set an NFL record. I think Cook will have a good year. I really do, but not 13th overall good. Julio Jones is going AFTER him. Odell Beckham is going one spot before him. Micheal Thomas is going TWO after him. Take the Wide receivers and don't buy the hype. 
My bet: Less than 750 yards, less than 6 TDs.

Any New England Wide Receiver - ADP post 7th

 

I say this every year, and every year I look like a moron. But I can't stop now. Let me start by saying that I think it's great he is drinking shakes and in the best shape of his life. I think it's great he wants to play. And I love seeing the Dolphins lose. That all being said, we have to see a decline in play. The guy is 41 years old. Remember watching Manning play in his final, miserable season. Manning was amazing, and then it was like watching my Dad play for the Broncos. Same thing. With a weak wide receiving corps, and an old man playing QB, along with no running game (I don't even know who plays for them anymore), how is this going to work?
    

RIP Brady. You should have retired when you beat the Seahawks. 

 

Check back tomorrow for my guys to target early. 
    

Like this? Check out my book! Available on Amazon 10/7/2018 on Amazon and my website.